Welcome to Ziv's Investing Blog!


QCOM is a not bad stock, it is a sure thing to have 20% return within a year plus 4% dividend.


Buffett is selling his house in California, this signals downturn of real estate is within 1 year (possibly early 2018).


If you buy S&P 500 index fund evenly every year, it takes 20 years to have significant gain difference from savings account (46x vs 20x). If you don't have a talent to beat SPY, maybe it is a better idea to enjoy life.


If there is no hedge fund manager, the world will be better.


Buffett is an interesting investor. He had a lot of presentations, but disclosed nothing important for investment.


Wells Fargo scandal provides an opportunity to buy in Wells Fargo at reasonable price. If I have extra cash, I will load more.


Bubble is not much in stock market. It still has room to increase before the interest rate hikes.


Activist investors create real wealth to human beings. Other investors are merely parasites.


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Short Amazon, increase positions when it rises to realize massive profits


The opportunity to load oil stocks comes again.Accumulate oil stocks little by little as they drop since perfect timing is impossible.


US stock market hitting new highs won't solve the economy problem. The tax for riches has to be increased so that it is more fair and also protects riches' long term wealth.


Despite the correction, the stock market only has one trend: going up.


There are a lot of profit taking in oil stocks, so wait for the support. Oil price won't drop drasmatically like last year.


If you bought EPE and MEMP as I suggested, it maybe wise to sell them to lock profit. They both have good hedges, but debt to asset ratios are high. Change to other high equity stocks.


Brexit provides an opportunity to buy the dip. So called "Uncertainty" is good to load up at lower price.


The major issue of US economy is that riches become richer and richer, but hard working middle class are struggling to make ends meet.


China economy still has big potential. The turmoil was caused by political instability. After the leadership team settles (hopefully), the economy and the price of oil will recover sharply.


US stock has a correction now, but don't panic. It just accumulates the strength for a new high.


Though you make sizable profit by shorting apple, try to long it on dip, iPhone SE seems good.


How to be a millionaire early:


Be patient with stock market correction. It may take more time to settle.


Amazon jumped to $674 after market. With $1.07 in earning, is $674/share a joke? Amazon's "impressive" earning is nothing but an accountant trick.


Before jumping in stock market, follow professional's advice first and understand it.


Dow Jones inched up and close to new high.


It is a safe bet to diversify and buy 20 relatively safe oil stocks.


Daytrader is just a dream, only long term investment and a stable income from work never fail.


In stock market, don't just focus on your stocks, but routinely check if the money to bring food on table is safe for the coming 12 months.


The stock market rule needs some adjustment to restrict the impulse trading.


US stock quietly rebounced. It is safe for at least a few months.


Jump on oil stocks. It is not late now.


Money printing is all over the world, Japan even has negative interest rate. It is a safe bet to buy gold now.


Low quality product is only used in dumb function in dumb place.


High quality product is much cheaper than free crappy product in the long run.


Mathew effect is the basic rule in a stable society until the disadvantage group is strong enough to make the society unstable.


The long term investment means that you have to avoid panic sell and impulsive buy. To realize this, one thing is that you form a correct mindset, but more importantly you have to set a banking system which makes it impossible for panic sell and impulsive buy.


The key for financial freedom is not maximize 401k, but accumulate cash to buy property and create passive income, plus reduce income tax legally with strategy.


Spender->Saver->Investor : Kid->Youth->Adult


Investors aim to seek a day when passive investments will provide sufficient income to cover all of their bills.


US stock market continues gain recently. The turmoil early this year was a correction, not necessarily a sign of bear market.


Amazon bounced back due to stock buy back. Monitor the cash reserve of amazon. It will keep going down after the cash is used up.


Load up oil stocks and sit tight.


A huge bounce back for oil stocks, also a good entry for new positon.


Keep your position in stock market if you will invest for long term. Buy more on the dip is more rewarding than sell and keep cash in the long term.


If well diversified, high risk investment can create high return with low risk.


Today is Chinese New Year for monkey. Wish US stock market have a good start.


US job market is healthy. Stock market will be stable soon.


To save money in long term, buy second hand high quality product or discount high quality product. Though it is still significantly more expensive than low end product, but over the time, you save a lot.


Self discipline is ridiculously weaker than the impulse of baisic instinct. Don't trust yourself about the ability to think wise, but create a way that you can invest without too much discipline.


If you don't short Amazon early, today is a good time to do it.


It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. (Quote from Warren Buffett)


Real estate investment is much less competitive than stock investment. If you do have enough cash, buy real estate and rent it out.


For safe play, EPE and MEMP are good shale oil stocks because of their excellent hedge positions.


Most people in stock market have above average wage. They are competitive workforce in their career. If you think about this, you will know how hard to make money by speculation rather than long term investment since all the competitors are clever. This is the reason why the people who are not that clever always win in stock market by holding mutual funds only. They are not competing with other people in speculation, but only ride on the growth of economy.


Short AMZN(amazon.com). It will face tough competion from walmart/target/sears online business. The barrier for competition is so slow that amazon cannot sustain current unreasonable high stock price.


China economy will be worse this year, but United States economy is still healthy.


There is some bubble in US stock, but not as much as you think.


To diversify, it maybe be a good idea to load some preferred stocks.


Long US stocks, buy the dip.


Short as many AAPL (apple) as possible.


Load much more US shale oil stocks.


Load more US shale oil stocks.


Think independently.


Now it is a good time to buy dip in China market.


Investment philosophy:

Value Investing: Seeking relatively undervalued stocks and believing they will eventually produce strong returns.

Fundamentals Investing: Identifying companies with strong earnings prospects. 

Growth Investing: Buying into companies that have promising emerging products or services that hold promising growth potential.

Socially-Responsible Investing: Looking for companies that adhere to certain set of moral and/or ethical business standards. 

Technical Investing: Examining past market data to look for hallmark visual patterns in trading activity to make buy and sell decisions.

Contrarian Investing: Making investment decisions in direct opposition to the market majority (selling when others are buying).


If you earn a big money by luck, it is like a loan with high interest, you will lose it plus paying interest.


I believe I was wrong with US shale oil stocks. If I can find an opportunity to sell it, I will do so.


Strategy to hold FNMA:

Hold for ever until it is relisted.


Fidelity brokagelink account: 95% of 401K can be used to trade stock directly.


Merrilledge brokerage account for free 30 trades/month if you have $50k balance.


Will US stock market fall soon?

Not likely. It will be flat or slightly rise.


Technical VS Fundamental

Use Technical for short term.

Use Fundamental for long term.

Fundamental and Technical combined for high profit.


How to trade a volatile stock?

When it drops to the bottom, sell a covered put.

When it rises to a point you want to sell, sell a covered call.


Study psychology, history, philosophy.


If oil price recovers later this year, it will be the time to sell shale oil company.


China market will keep going up after correction for a few months.


Run your family like a company, think how to spend money wisely in order to provide more money for investment.

Cut spending and minimize taxes.

The real happiness is not from luxury thing, but from the self improvement.


When executive resigns for personal reason, it is actually not personal reason, it is because something is wrong with company.


If there is nothing to buy in the market, keeping cash is best investment. Spend it until the opportunity comes out.


Is oil stock good investment now?

Absolutely yes. Oil will go back to normal price within a few months. With the world economy slow down, it provides an opportunity for value investing.


Is there value investing in China?

Value investing doesn't work in China. The market is manipulated by either government or market maker.


Investing vs speculation:

Value investing for long term

Speculation for short term

By nature, human being prefers short term. That's why most people lose.


Increase the possibility of profit:

When you feel a stock is dirt cheap to buy now, hold on 3 more days to wait it to hit ground and settle.

When you are desperate on a depressed holding stock, hold on 3 more days to see if it will be better.

When you feel a popular stock is so hot and you have to buy it now, hold on 3 more days to cool down.

When you see a depressed stock finally breaks even and have the impulse to sell, hold on 3 more days to convince yourself you can sell it at higher price.


Is it possible to make a living in stock market?

Yes, when you have financial freedom and 10 years' concrete stock trading experience.

No, when you don't have enough money to support yourself or you are a newbie in stock market.

Short answer: If you don't need money, you get more money. If you need money, you lose more money.


Growth potential by sector:

1. Healthcare

2. Technology

3. Financials



Buy on bust.

Sell on bubble.


How to overcome greed and fear:

You have financial security, so you can be calm.

You treat stock trading as a game, not a serious thing, so that you can take risk and make wise decision.


Personality and stock trading:

If you are sensitive, you will sell a stock once it is up or down just a little. You won't lose much money, but you won't earn much money either.

If you are not sensitive, you can sit tight, but you are not able to know the right time to sell. Maybe you have a huge paper profit, but very possibly you will sell it at wrong time when the stock is depressed.

No matter you are sensitive or not, you don't have the right mindset to make profit.


Tricks to hold stock longer without financial security:

Make yourself not able to sell one stock by shorting a covered call at current price plus 25% for 6 months to 1 year.

Trade stocks in IRA or 401k; This will make you hold stocks longer since you know you don't need the money in retirement account soon anyway.


Stock market cycle:


Bull lasts longer (usually 4 years); Bear lasts shorter (usually 1 year). The market keeps going up with dips.


Investment websites:






Stock buying strategy:

Save up $10000 every 6 months and buy on big dip.

Sit tight for at least 1 year.


Market directions:

USA market will be flat for rest of 2015.

China market will have a correction for a few months.